Mumbai, Dec 16 Examining the global outlook for food supplies in the current tight global market, the London-based International Grains Council (IGC) during its biannual session in Tokyo early this month, concluded that the global ending stocks would be further drawn down in 2007-08, as consumption will remain unmatched by even the highest ever global output.
By far the biggest increase in consumption would be in biofuels sector, with the amount of grain (mainly corn/maize) used to produce ethanol set to reach100 million tonnes, an increase of 44 per cent from the previous year.
With wheat supplies especially tight due to disappointing 2007 crops in several countries including Australia, prices had hit record highs. Some exporters had taken measures to protect domestic consumers, including new or additional export taxes.
Ocean freight
Recent surges in ocean freight rates had added further to the burden of importers, especially developing countries, although the expected decline in wheat trade in 2007-08 would be largely due to improved crops in some leading importers rather than the high import prices, IGC pointed out.
Growers were expected to respond to the much higher prices and expand the global wheat area by around four per cent for the 2008-09 crop. Based on average yields, output in 2008 could increase to around 645 million tonnes, experts forecast.
This could result in some recovery in world stocks at the end of 2008-09.
A huge rise in maize output in the US, more than offsetting the expected increase in ethanol use, prevented maize prices from rising as sharply as those of wheat.
Maize prices
However, this year’s substantially higher international demand for this grain, especially in the EU, will lift trade to a new record, it is believed.
Although maize supplies appear adequate, there were concerns about outlook for 2008-09 when a significant shift in plantings back to soyabean was likely to occur in the US.
With respect to rice, noting the firmness in international prices, the Council saw prospects for trade in calendar year 2008 dependent on the outcome of harvest between now and mid-2008. But there were indications that world shipments could se an increase even if Indonesia is a less significant buyer, IGC pointed out.
By far the biggest increase in consumption would be in biofuels sector, with the amount of grain (mainly corn/maize) used to produce ethanol set to reach100 million tonnes, an increase of 44 per cent from the previous year.
With wheat supplies especially tight due to disappointing 2007 crops in several countries including Australia, prices had hit record highs. Some exporters had taken measures to protect domestic consumers, including new or additional export taxes.
Ocean freight
Recent surges in ocean freight rates had added further to the burden of importers, especially developing countries, although the expected decline in wheat trade in 2007-08 would be largely due to improved crops in some leading importers rather than the high import prices, IGC pointed out.
Growers were expected to respond to the much higher prices and expand the global wheat area by around four per cent for the 2008-09 crop. Based on average yields, output in 2008 could increase to around 645 million tonnes, experts forecast.
This could result in some recovery in world stocks at the end of 2008-09.
A huge rise in maize output in the US, more than offsetting the expected increase in ethanol use, prevented maize prices from rising as sharply as those of wheat.
Maize prices
However, this year’s substantially higher international demand for this grain, especially in the EU, will lift trade to a new record, it is believed.
Although maize supplies appear adequate, there were concerns about outlook for 2008-09 when a significant shift in plantings back to soyabean was likely to occur in the US.
With respect to rice, noting the firmness in international prices, the Council saw prospects for trade in calendar year 2008 dependent on the outcome of harvest between now and mid-2008. But there were indications that world shipments could se an increase even if Indonesia is a less significant buyer, IGC pointed out.
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